Another frustrating Nuggets loss and the Broncos head to Baltimore to take on a team with a chip on their shoulder. Expect a difficult Broncos test this week.
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[00:00:02] The Timberwolves beat us. Dan, play that funky music.
[00:00:11] Alright, welcome in to another episode of the Blucifer Brothers. We're coming to you live after the Nuggets kind of blew that game, but also they didn't really deserve to win the game.
[00:00:24] They just kind of like messed them up for stretches and then got messed up for stretches. And so they got messed up for the last stretch.
[00:00:31] No Murray with a concussion. The Timberwolves come back. They win.
[00:00:38] It was, so now 2-3 Ryan. Let's just start with the Nuggets. Then we can go Broncos, we'll kind of preview the Ravens, then we'll get into our best bets and we'll get good people out of here with some good knowledge.
[00:00:50] Um, are you, uh, more concerned, less concerned about the same, um, as when we, we last spoke after the Thunder, uh, shellacking?
[00:01:03] Um, and then they blew a game to the Clippers, um, that they were up, um, in the fourth quarter in, uh, and then they came back into ugly Eastern Conference wins in overtime.
[00:01:16] And then they fought back. It looked like they were going to get boat raced in the first half there for a little, and then fought back.
[00:01:23] And then in the fourth really went on a crazy run and then kind of ran out of gas, but also played stupid down the stretch.
[00:01:31] Like they got some offensive rebounds and just didn't reset the offense and get it back to Jokic. It was very weird.
[00:01:37] Um, but obviously no Murray for most of the, for the entire second half. Um, this is a fine loss in my opinion, but where, where do you, how are you feeling about our Nuggies right now?
[00:01:49] I think, um, in general, I'm trying not to overreact. Uh, it's clear that there are pretty big holes in the roster right now.
[00:02:02] I guess I shouldn't say holes in the roster. There's holes in the way that the roster is playing.
[00:02:07] Uh, we're not shooting well. Murray's looked off. Obviously he gets hurt tonight.
[00:02:15] Everything's just felt like almost an extension of a preseason, uh, these first five games. And that's fine. Like we didn't start well the year that we won the championship. Um, and that team really evolved and like sort of, um, found its stride, uh, sort of right around the all-star break and then kind of never looked back.
[00:02:37] So I, at least in our eyes, like it felt like that watching the team, you know, they weren't, they didn't seem like the unit they became, uh, it wasn't the, the natural basketball.
[00:02:50] And there were stretches tonight where it was awesome. Like the ball was popping and they were getting really good shots and people were hitting shots. Gordon had a great game.
[00:03:00] Um, so there's flashes of that still, which is really what I'm holding onto at this point. Um, but if there's one thing that I don't think is an overreaction, it's to the lack of shooting.
[00:03:15] Like even on the best nights, you don't want to be trusting, trusting Russell Westbrook to shoot a lot of threes. Like it just doesn't seem like we trust Stravler and he looks scared.
[00:03:27] Like it doesn't seem like he wants to shoot the ball right now. So it's, uh, yeah, the lack of shooting is worry.
[00:03:36] Yeah. I mean, Stravler has been, I think he's been great from three in the previous games. I think tonight the physicality got to him. I also think he got just an absolute brutal whistle, um, tonight. And I think that threw him out of his game. Um, obviously like you just don't get anything for free against these Minnesota perimeter defenders. Um, he drew a three point foul.
[00:03:57] Tonight. Um, he played fine defense. Um, I think to me, yeah, yeah. He almost fouled out in like 10 minutes. It was wild. I mean, he got called for like a flop on a Rudy Gobert back screen. Like that just never gets called. He's getting a little bit of the rookie treatment from the refs, which is fine. Um, to me, the evolving piece.
[00:04:21] For the roster as constructed. Like if you told me, Hey Kyle, this team actually ends up being really good and, um, no one gets traded or no one gets released. It stays as is constructed. What do you think happened? Um, Peyton Watson would be my answer. Right. Because right now the problem with the bench unit is you have two non shooters, right? Like teams are fine to leave Peyton and teams are fine to leave Russ.
[00:04:49] So you're playing three on five. Um, and that's just a bad recipe right now. You need him to at least be able to spot up in the corner so that if Russ is playing pick and roll, he can knock that down.
[00:05:04] Russ and I think he's capable of that.
[00:05:07] Russ and P. Watt were a combined two for 14 tonight. Yeah. And Oh, didn't Oh for five from three. So like to your point, it is. Watson definitely has the highest ceiling. Like his, the, the ability that we've seen from him does not match what we're seeing.
[00:05:25] Right. And it, as I said on the last podcast, it makes sense to me. He was banged up in the preseason. Um, and he's trying to, you know, find his way in the new role. The thing that's been weird to me, and it kind of reared its head in crunch time again, um, was, you know, Jokic misses the fadeaway over Randall. Normally that's a bucket, but he missed it. That's fine.
[00:05:52] We get the offensive rebound. And for some reason we were in like a hurry and everyone else was attacking, uh, down one Christian Brown shot our layup. Uh, he got fouled on said layup, but like Christian Brown shot the ball with 10 seconds left. It just feels like a very weird hierarchy right now where there's not enough of like, Hey, let's just pull this out and get this to Jokic. Like we're playing at kind of a frenetic pace.
[00:06:19] And it felt like even some stretches before that, um, Westbrook got an offensive rebound. It ended up going off of his hand, but he just could have kicked it to Jokic outside, set the offense back up, let Jokic go again. Like, I think you just get an offensive board and you let your best player go again and go again and go again. And we are for better or worse. We need Jokic to elevate.
[00:06:42] And that's always been the case. Um, but it feels like right now there's some, a little bit of hero ball and maybe some of that is Murray being off. Cause it feels like maybe the Murray Jokic pick and roll almost created a natural hierarchy in crunch time for us.
[00:07:02] That just isn't there right now. Um, even before Murray was concussed, it wasn't as, um, deadly clearly, uh, we saw glimpses of it in Brooklyn, um, down the stretch there.
[00:07:15] It ended them, um, in, in, in overtime and fourth quarter. But, uh, that I would say those are the two things that I would look for, for improvement.
[00:07:25] If you're a Nuggets fan, um, because, uh, Russ is going to be Russ.
[00:07:30] Like Russ is trying insanely hard all the time. And Russ is playing really fast. He got some big offensive rebounds. He had some big blocks. Um, like he's just not the same freakish athlete.
[00:07:43] Like his turnover tonight where he tried to dish it to the corner, he got picked. I was, I was sitting here with our producer, Dan, the man. I said, Russ from even like three years ago, Russ attempts to yam that.
[00:07:57] Like Russ just attempts to dunk that on that man's head. And I don't care who was there, right? Russ with a full head of steam was trying to dunk it on everybody.
[00:08:06] And we've seen his shot get blocked more this year. Like there's just some limitations there, but I think a lot of things fall into place with him with a little bit better.
[00:08:17] We've seen Saric struggle out the gates a little bit. He hasn't looked comfortable. He's out of the rotation completely in the second half.
[00:08:23] Um, we saw Hunter Tyson in there, um, instead of him and Zeke Nagy. Um, it feels like something's been done there where there's just been a complete loss of faith, um, there with the, the nuggets.
[00:08:38] And yeah, it's, it's been interesting to say the least. Um, but yeah, that's, that's, uh, that's about what it is.
[00:08:49] Yeah. I mean, it's not, it, it's Dario Saric hasn't been great. Like nothing has felt cohesive in that second unit at all. They have no identity right now.
[00:09:04] And to me, honestly, like Malone's almost been babying them a little bit. And I actually have more criticisms for Malone right now than I have for any of the players.
[00:09:13] Like, I think that there's real pressure on him right now because reportedly there's tension between him and the front office already. And there's, there's a lot on this season. And I think if this continues to go poorly, that seat is going to start to get hot.
[00:09:33] Like Jokic loves him obviously, but like you have to win. You cannot be, you cannot be wasting these years. And it feels to me a little bit, and this is what I'm keeping my eye on. It feels a little stale to me.
[00:09:51] Um, like I think Malone's message of like defense and the same shit that these guys have been hearing for the last four years. It's not necessarily that it's bad or it's not winning coach behavior, but that stuff does just start to wear on you. And it just goes at one in one ear and out the other. Like it doesn't be, it's not as effective over and over and over again.
[00:10:12] And I think there could be some of that going on. Um, and that's, that's slippery slope. And I think it goes really quickly. Like Bud was out of Milwaukee in a hurry. Yeah. You know, uh, so.
[00:10:28] And I think, and I think also there's just some, I mean, obviously he just got a new contract. They'd have to pay out. Um, but I do think.
[00:10:37] The Broncos have so much money. It doesn't count against the salary cap. Like people talk about that, but like, you can structure that in a way where it does. They don't even feel that.
[00:10:46] Yeah. Um, but I'm just saying like, I think this team has required a little bit more of the coach than other teams. Like you have to say, Hey, play this way. Hey, this is what we want. Right. Um, even when there's mistakes, encouraging the style and the identity from the bench.
[00:11:07] The, the fact that we did what we did down the stretch there is pretty wild, right? Like it's not good. And I think that that, that hurt us quite a bit. Um, and to your point, I think a lot of that was coaching, um, where it's, Hey, pull this out, right? You should be at half court screaming, pull this out.
[00:11:36] An extra 14 seconds is huge. Like I get, it doesn't reset to 24, but you can run a pick and roll again, or you can get Jokic a post again in 14 seconds. And every time Jokic got a post, we got a good shot.
[00:11:50] They don't always go down. That's fine, but get a good shot. And I, it feels like we're less heliocentric this year and we're worse for it. If that makes sense. Like we need to be playing more like those nuggets did with Fakou in them.
[00:12:05] We're not that talent dearth, but running these, like we've run stretches where we're just like trying to run Aaron Gordon post-ups and he was awesome tonight and hats off to him by the way.
[00:12:18] But that's just dumb offense. Like get Jokic the ball, make teams double and make everyone work out of that. That's the smart way to play. So those are my takeaways. I just feel like we're not playing smart around him right now. Um, him being Jokic.
[00:12:34] And to your point, I don't think we're a, a well coach teams as far as strategy right now. Um, and, and what we're looking to do attacking, like we were also like, we didn't look prepared for some like basic, like flare screens.
[00:12:52] Like Mike Conley was getting loose on flare screens. We had, we got killed. I think it was, went from eight to five when Christian just got caught on a flare screen. There's nothing else going on on the ball.
[00:13:04] And he's just caught going under, like, what are you doing? All we want is no threes there. Like that's coaching. That's just drilled into your head of, Hey man, if you get caught high side there and Jokic has to guard Rudy Gobert's goofy self and someone else 15 feet from the rim, we're going to be fine.
[00:13:22] It's like, it's like, he is a defensive coach. Like, yeah, he should be doing that. So like, if that isn't happening and in, it probably is happening. So that's just more fodder to my point of like, this is it one in one ear or out the other. Like they're, they're not fucking paying attention to him right now. Like, I don't think that even he would necessarily disagree with that.
[00:13:45] Like clearly whatever there he's saying or whatever he's getting across in practice is not happening on the floor or what he's doing in practice is bad.
[00:13:56] Right.
[00:13:57] So it's a bad news of our time.
[00:13:59] Yeah.
[00:14:00] Yeah.
[00:14:01] Or film probably even more likely as, I mean, it's reports have been also the fuck you NBA.
[00:14:07] Okay.
[00:14:08] We go back to back on the road, give us two days off and now we're back to back again, four and six nights just out the gates.
[00:14:15] Yeah.
[00:14:16] That's some bullshit. But so I'm sure we're doing more film than practice, but I digress.
[00:14:24] So I think that's kind of where we're at with the nuggets.
[00:14:28] By the way,
[00:14:29] Jokic has been otherworldly.
[00:14:31] Do you think they're going to make a trade?
[00:14:33] I think we have all the pieces.
[00:14:36] I just don't know what that looks like.
[00:14:39] I mean,
[00:14:40] I think Russ Najee Saric for something looks,
[00:14:46] looks pretty okay right now.
[00:14:49] But what about Zach Fabian?
[00:14:51] I don't think we're getting that kind of money to get,
[00:14:56] to give up.
[00:14:57] But to your point,
[00:15:01] I think there's,
[00:15:03] I don't think,
[00:15:05] I think Booth,
[00:15:07] similar to how Malone is on the hot seat,
[00:15:10] Booth isn't blameless here either.
[00:15:13] Like we just sent Jalen Pickett down to the G League.
[00:15:16] If not,
[00:15:17] we said,
[00:15:17] hey,
[00:15:17] our undrafted Trey Alexander,
[00:15:19] we would rather have him on our team as our third string point guard.
[00:15:24] Yeah.
[00:15:24] Like it's then if Peyton Watson doesn't turn out to be something and you're looking at the draft picks and you're like,
[00:15:34] okay,
[00:15:34] well you drafted Christian.
[00:15:36] So.
[00:15:37] That was A plus.
[00:15:38] Good job there.
[00:15:41] But you kind of got stuck in a,
[00:15:44] in a,
[00:15:44] in your own rut there and started sniffing your own farts.
[00:15:47] And all of a sudden we're stuck with Hunter Tyson,
[00:15:51] who I kind of like,
[00:15:52] but I,
[00:15:53] we just have to see more.
[00:15:55] Like we have to,
[00:15:56] and it doesn't seem like the incentive structure right now.
[00:16:00] And I've talked about this on the podcast all the time is like,
[00:16:03] it doesn't seem like Malone's incentive structure is properly set up to like really be putting these guys in the right situation.
[00:16:10] Like I kind of think he hates coaching Hunter Tyson.
[00:16:13] I don't think he really likes coaching Peyton Watson.
[00:16:16] And unfortunately for us,
[00:16:19] they're going to be important parts for,
[00:16:22] unfortunately for Malone,
[00:16:23] they're going to be important parts of this.
[00:16:25] So he either has to figure that out or we have to figure something out.
[00:16:30] Cause it doesn't seem like those guys are getting this sort of instruction that they need.
[00:16:35] Yeah.
[00:16:36] It feels like there needs to be,
[00:16:41] cause I mean a lot of successful coaches are this way.
[00:16:44] They're notorious for not playing rookies,
[00:16:46] you know,
[00:16:46] and whatever.
[00:16:47] And there's been a lot of reports about NBA coaches just being like,
[00:16:52] players have never been dumber when they're coming to the NBA.
[00:16:55] Like it drives us up a fucking wall.
[00:16:58] But I think that's also just like being aware.
[00:17:02] Like if you're Mike Malone,
[00:17:03] you have a lot of good qualities as a coach.
[00:17:06] But you have to know your blind spots to be like,
[00:17:09] Hey,
[00:17:09] I need someone on my staff who is good at working with these young players,
[00:17:13] good at communicating.
[00:17:14] We're not drafting 18 year olds though.
[00:17:17] We're drafting 23 year olds.
[00:17:19] Like the whole point is that they're supposed to be mature and be able to step into these roles.
[00:17:24] Like again,
[00:17:25] like in the blame pie,
[00:17:27] like that's gone Calvin Booth in terms of like,
[00:17:29] I'd almost rather have a young dumb guy who Malone can sit on the bench,
[00:17:34] but at least when he starts playing,
[00:17:35] he's 21 and not 27.
[00:17:38] Yeah.
[00:17:40] yeah.
[00:17:40] No,
[00:17:41] it's,
[00:17:42] it's so,
[00:17:43] but my point is,
[00:17:44] I think,
[00:17:45] I,
[00:17:45] I think Booth has also heard the criticism of,
[00:17:49] you're wasting Jokic's prime.
[00:17:52] Like,
[00:17:53] this is almost like when Dirk won the title and all of a sudden Dallas started smelling their own farts a little bit and was like,
[00:18:00] we don't need Tyson Chandler,
[00:18:02] Jason kid.
[00:18:02] Like there's a narrative out there like that too.
[00:18:06] Um,
[00:18:07] and so I think,
[00:18:08] you know,
[00:18:09] there,
[00:18:10] there's something to be said for that.
[00:18:11] And I think he,
[00:18:13] he'll feel some pressure as well.
[00:18:15] Um,
[00:18:15] and we'll see what happens,
[00:18:17] but to me,
[00:18:19] you have to start having some very real and very good coaching conversations around.
[00:18:27] This is your role.
[00:18:28] Like Russ,
[00:18:29] if Murray is going to miss again,
[00:18:31] if we are down the stretch,
[00:18:34] we're going to put Strother in like,
[00:18:37] sorry,
[00:18:38] dude,
[00:18:38] we're not going to have people trap immediately off of you at the three point line.
[00:18:45] Like I got trapped immediately.
[00:18:48] If,
[00:18:48] if Jamal is out for a couple of games,
[00:18:51] I think throwing Russ into the starting lineup with Jokic would be awesome.
[00:18:56] Cause just letting them figure out that chemistry,
[00:18:59] like almost a little Gary Harris,
[00:19:01] Jamal type of vibe where it's like,
[00:19:03] Oh,
[00:19:04] okay.
[00:19:04] Now Jamal,
[00:19:04] you have to figure this out.
[00:19:06] Like you can't not do this now.
[00:19:08] And we know it works.
[00:19:10] It gets him to see some 15 footers go down.
[00:19:11] Cause that's been the part that's been missing is that free throw line jumper.
[00:19:15] Russ has gotten to it a few times and it's been off.
[00:19:17] And you're like,
[00:19:18] Ooh,
[00:19:18] yikes.
[00:19:19] That used to be a little bit more.
[00:19:21] And then Malone can stagger Jokic instead of staggering Jamal with Russ.
[00:19:27] Like,
[00:19:27] I think that's the eventual move is that you need to play Russell Westbrook with Jokic more.
[00:19:33] Because the whole point is getting Russell Westbrook on a screen.
[00:19:36] Like let Jokic set that screen.
[00:19:39] We know Russ isn't going to set it.
[00:19:41] And so you go up there,
[00:19:43] you set the screen for Russ and get him downhill moving.
[00:19:46] Like that's where Jokic thrives.
[00:19:49] So,
[00:19:49] and it's where Russ thrives.
[00:19:51] So.
[00:19:52] Yeah.
[00:19:52] Yep.
[00:19:53] Um,
[00:19:54] all right.
[00:19:54] That is the nuggets currently.
[00:19:57] Uh,
[00:19:57] let's get into the Broncos.
[00:19:59] Uh,
[00:19:59] we were correct.
[00:20:00] The Broncos beat the worst team,
[00:20:02] uh,
[00:20:04] maybe ever constructed in the modern NFL.
[00:20:07] Um,
[00:20:08] the Panthers are terrible.
[00:20:11] Like that is good.
[00:20:14] And not that is worse this week.
[00:20:16] They traded one of their better players.
[00:20:19] I mean,
[00:20:20] one of their three left on the roster.
[00:20:23] Yeah.
[00:20:23] It's terrible.
[00:20:25] Um,
[00:20:26] but now I think,
[00:20:28] uh,
[00:20:29] it felt like after that game,
[00:20:32] it felt like the Broncos kind of knew they were like,
[00:20:35] all right,
[00:20:36] well,
[00:20:36] we're going to play two real teams now.
[00:20:38] Like we've got the Ravens,
[00:20:40] we've got the chiefs.
[00:20:41] We got to,
[00:20:41] if we want to be something,
[00:20:44] you can't just go and get handled like you did against the chargers.
[00:20:49] Right.
[00:20:50] Um,
[00:20:52] so Ravens coming in,
[00:20:54] Lamar didn't practice for two.
[00:20:57] He practiced today.
[00:20:58] He's full go,
[00:21:00] um,
[00:21:00] had some back and knee stuff.
[00:21:02] Uh,
[00:21:03] the Ravens are the ones who traded,
[00:21:05] um,
[00:21:06] and got another weapon,
[00:21:08] uh,
[00:21:09] for him outside.
[00:21:10] Zay flowers has been awesome.
[00:21:11] Lively has been awesome.
[00:21:13] All of a sudden,
[00:21:13] Mark Andrews is awesome.
[00:21:14] Again,
[00:21:15] Derek Henry is awesome.
[00:21:16] Um,
[00:21:18] this feels like a lot.
[00:21:19] So they got,
[00:21:20] yeah,
[00:21:21] this feels like a lot of weapons,
[00:21:25] uh,
[00:21:26] coming here.
[00:21:26] And it feels like a team that is going to be pissed.
[00:21:29] We said,
[00:21:30] we said last week,
[00:21:31] I was looking at the touchdown scores for that game and it was just such a bad list.
[00:21:37] This list is much different.
[00:21:39] Uh,
[00:21:40] yeah,
[00:21:41] it's like an NFL all-star team on the offensive side for the Ravens.
[00:21:47] So yeah,
[00:21:47] then you got Javante Williams in there.
[00:21:50] So yeah,
[00:21:51] then Bo Nix higher than you'd like him to be.
[00:21:54] Yeah.
[00:21:55] Yeah.
[00:21:55] Um,
[00:21:56] so I guess,
[00:21:57] I think that's the first problem you have to solve.
[00:22:00] We've spent a lot of time on this podcast talking about the offense and rightfully so,
[00:22:03] because obviously the development of Bo Nix,
[00:22:05] we've always said that's kind of how this season gets defined success wise.
[00:22:10] Um,
[00:22:11] but in this game,
[00:22:13] what do you think the strategy is for the Broncos here?
[00:22:16] Because we've been one of the best pressure rate teams.
[00:22:20] Um,
[00:22:21] but in Riley Moss and it's been awesome.
[00:22:25] We've played some bad offenses.
[00:22:27] Correct.
[00:22:28] A hundred percent,
[00:22:29] some bad offenses.
[00:22:32] And it also feels like we've done some aggressive pass rushing,
[00:22:39] which if you get out of your lane to go rush Lamar,
[00:22:44] as long as he has one leg working,
[00:22:47] he will hobble himself,
[00:22:48] uh,
[00:22:49] up the sideline for 15 yards.
[00:22:51] Like you're not going to be able to get the same,
[00:22:54] um,
[00:22:55] like blitz packages or same,
[00:22:58] you know,
[00:22:58] pressure.
[00:22:59] Um,
[00:23:00] obviously Zach Allen in the middle,
[00:23:01] if he can get some wins there,
[00:23:03] that's great.
[00:23:04] Um,
[00:23:05] cause that's where you can get to him quick enough that it just blows the play up.
[00:23:09] But outside rushing Lamar is really hard to do because you almost just want to keep everything inside rather than like actually trying to get a sack.
[00:23:19] Um,
[00:23:19] um,
[00:23:20] so how on earth do you,
[00:23:22] do you stop this team from scoring 30?
[00:23:25] Cause you don't think the Ravens defense is like insanely good,
[00:23:29] but I also see no world in which our offense can score 30.
[00:23:33] So how do you do that?
[00:23:35] I don't,
[00:23:36] obviously the Browns did it and have done it for a while,
[00:23:39] but we don't have miles Garrett.
[00:23:42] Um,
[00:23:42] we have someone better than Denzel Ward,
[00:23:44] which is good.
[00:23:45] I don't,
[00:23:46] I don't think we're going to hold them under 30 points.
[00:23:49] Uh,
[00:23:50] that I just think they have too many weapons and Derek Henry is a different type of animal.
[00:23:58] Like it's not,
[00:24:00] and it's a bad matchup for us.
[00:24:03] Like he is so big and physical and we're a little light in our britches.
[00:24:10] Uh,
[00:24:11] so I,
[00:24:12] I anticipate that this is going to,
[00:24:14] they're going to run the ball a lot and successfully and then throw some passing.
[00:24:21] Like they're just dangerous everywhere.
[00:24:23] So it's so well-rounded that I just don't think barring turnover luck,
[00:24:29] probably like we're going to have to have a couple of fumbles and maybe a pick six in there to stay competitive in this.
[00:24:36] I think,
[00:24:36] uh,
[00:24:37] cause that's the only way that I can see them.
[00:24:40] And even in that scenario,
[00:24:41] they're probably scoring 24 points.
[00:24:43] Like,
[00:24:44] you know,
[00:24:44] they could lose three possessions and score 24 points pretty easily.
[00:24:48] So it's,
[00:24:50] it's,
[00:24:52] it's,
[00:24:53] Broncos defense is a little bit on fraud watch this week.
[00:24:57] Like we've had guys really overperforming what their preseason expectations were.
[00:25:04] And they've looked great.
[00:25:06] Like,
[00:25:06] and Vance Joseph has been unbelievable.
[00:25:09] Like he's been dialing some shit up.
[00:25:12] Um,
[00:25:12] but this week is the first real test of that.
[00:25:16] And it's,
[00:25:17] it's not really a fair test because nobody's going to pass this test or very few NFL teams are going to pass it.
[00:25:23] Pass this test.
[00:25:23] But there are a lot of metrics that say the Broncos are one of the best,
[00:25:27] if not the best defense in the league right now.
[00:25:29] So it's,
[00:25:30] uh,
[00:25:31] you know,
[00:25:32] you,
[00:25:33] it's,
[00:25:33] it'll be an interesting test on that side of the ball to see if they can hold up,
[00:25:37] uh,
[00:25:38] even remotely against what's an insanely talented offensive team.
[00:25:42] Yeah.
[00:25:43] I think for me,
[00:25:44] the game plan has to be twofold.
[00:25:46] I think one,
[00:25:48] you can't start slow on offense,
[00:25:52] which the Broncos have been one to do.
[00:25:55] Like you,
[00:25:56] even if you don't put up points,
[00:25:58] you have to get first downs.
[00:25:59] You have to move the clock.
[00:26:01] You have to shorten this game.
[00:26:02] Like you have to put,
[00:26:03] you know,
[00:26:05] some,
[00:26:05] and the Ravens defense has not been,
[00:26:09] this is not last year's Ravens defense.
[00:26:12] Obviously Mike McDonnell left to go.
[00:26:14] They've been bad.
[00:26:15] Like they have not,
[00:26:17] they have not really been like very good.
[00:26:20] So.
[00:26:20] James Winston without Omari Cooper lit them up last week.
[00:26:24] Right.
[00:26:25] Like.
[00:26:25] It certainly is not your father's Ravens defense.
[00:26:28] Like you see those jerseys and you're expecting Ray Lewis.
[00:26:31] And all of a sudden it's not Ray Lewis.
[00:26:34] So.
[00:26:34] No.
[00:26:35] So I do think there's a world in which you try to,
[00:26:39] you're trying to shrink the game.
[00:26:40] Right.
[00:26:42] I think the other thing is,
[00:26:44] I think a lot of the Ravens lack of success in the post season.
[00:26:50] I think they,
[00:26:53] they're a team that if you let them get rolling,
[00:26:57] they're,
[00:26:57] they're almost like a college team that presses.
[00:27:00] Right.
[00:27:00] Like if you start turning the ball over,
[00:27:03] they're going to start throwing oops.
[00:27:04] They're going to start feeling good about themselves.
[00:27:06] And if you catch them on the right night,
[00:27:07] you're going to be like,
[00:27:09] how the hell does anyone beat this team or stay within 30 points?
[00:27:13] It's sort of like the team that we played in the Erie rec center
[00:27:17] tournament.
[00:27:18] Yes.
[00:27:19] But.
[00:27:20] They,
[00:27:20] they got ruined.
[00:27:21] Everyone was there.
[00:27:22] Everyone was there for that.
[00:27:23] Uh,
[00:27:24] but they,
[00:27:27] on the other side,
[00:27:28] I think Lamar can get impatient.
[00:27:31] Right.
[00:27:32] Like it's hard for Lamar to just sit there and take three yard check downs
[00:27:38] to just sit in the pocket and be like,
[00:27:40] I'm being contained.
[00:27:41] Okay.
[00:27:42] There he is.
[00:27:43] Let me hit him.
[00:27:45] Let's get this.
[00:27:46] You know,
[00:27:47] especially if all of a sudden it's a fourth and one,
[00:27:49] they call a stupid play turnover.
[00:27:51] Like that's kind of been their playoffs.
[00:27:54] It's not that like Lamar and them never moved the ball.
[00:27:57] I feel like it's sometimes they get impatient and Lamar will be like,
[00:28:02] I'm trying to push this ball downfield or I'm trying to,
[00:28:05] you know,
[00:28:05] and that's where maybe some mistakes can get made.
[00:28:08] So I do think that there's a world where you can try to frustrate them a
[00:28:17] little bit,
[00:28:18] both with your offense and with your defense.
[00:28:21] But I agree with you.
[00:28:22] If this thing gets going early,
[00:28:25] you are in for a long,
[00:28:28] long afternoon because they are going to be pissed.
[00:28:31] Like I said,
[00:28:32] they were getting a lot of talk as like,
[00:28:35] Oh,
[00:28:35] it's them in the lines.
[00:28:36] Those are the top two teams in the league.
[00:28:38] And then they blow that game to the Browns once again,
[00:28:41] which they do every year.
[00:28:42] So maybe it's not that big of a deal to them at this point,
[00:28:45] but I think it was a stupid loss that they had.
[00:28:48] They seemed pissed.
[00:28:50] Yeah.
[00:28:50] It's the worst possible time to catch them.
[00:28:53] Like they are,
[00:28:54] they watched a lot of that film.
[00:28:56] So they're,
[00:28:58] they're not going to be happy.
[00:28:59] Uh,
[00:29:01] and I think a rookie quarterback back there with the defense that's catching strays,
[00:29:07] including on this podcast just now,
[00:29:09] like I think it could,
[00:29:11] uh,
[00:29:11] listen,
[00:29:12] they weren't strays.
[00:29:13] They were aimed at them.
[00:29:14] Yeah,
[00:29:15] that's true.
[00:29:16] You guys,
[00:29:16] you guys let Jameis Winston cook your ass.
[00:29:19] All right.
[00:29:21] They're not good.
[00:29:22] Part of this is it is,
[00:29:23] it's on the road and Baltimore on the road,
[00:29:27] rookie quarter,
[00:29:28] but like there are a lot of parts of this where you could see it being a 21 point game early and maybe Bo even backdoor covering it,
[00:29:38] but it never feeling close.
[00:29:40] Right.
[00:29:40] Like,
[00:29:42] uh,
[00:29:43] yeah,
[00:29:43] I can see something like that happening.
[00:29:46] Yep.
[00:29:46] You got to get out the gates here.
[00:29:48] Um,
[00:29:49] and moving to the offensive side of the ball,
[00:29:51] it feels like Bo,
[00:29:56] this will be a true test because like you said,
[00:29:58] he's looked,
[00:29:59] he's had some good games,
[00:30:01] right?
[00:30:02] Uh,
[00:30:02] got the offensive player of the month.
[00:30:04] Um,
[00:30:05] rookie,
[00:30:06] sorry,
[00:30:07] not overall.
[00:30:08] Um,
[00:30:09] yeah,
[00:30:09] yeah,
[00:30:10] yeah.
[00:30:10] Um,
[00:30:11] yeah,
[00:30:11] he did was not better than multiple caveats.
[00:30:14] Um,
[00:30:14] yeah,
[00:30:14] but I mean,
[00:30:16] still,
[00:30:16] I,
[00:30:16] I don't know that I thought that that would happen.
[00:30:18] Um,
[00:30:19] but
[00:30:21] this is a different test.
[00:30:23] Um,
[00:30:24] because if you go,
[00:30:27] you know,
[00:30:27] especially in that like Carolina game,
[00:30:30] um,
[00:30:31] in that Raiders game at a certain point,
[00:30:33] it became like,
[00:30:33] Hey man,
[00:30:34] if we just punt this thing,
[00:30:36] we're fine.
[00:30:37] Right?
[00:30:37] Like,
[00:30:38] and there's almost a little bit of freedom that comes with that rather than like the pressure of like,
[00:30:42] Hey,
[00:30:42] we need to score right here because if we don't score,
[00:30:45] they are go make a play.
[00:30:48] Yeah.
[00:30:48] And it's going to be a problem.
[00:30:50] Um,
[00:30:51] that's sort of a thing.
[00:30:52] So yeah.
[00:30:56] Yeah.
[00:30:57] I,
[00:30:58] I think it's the offense is always going to be a little bit tricky,
[00:31:04] right?
[00:31:05] Like,
[00:31:05] I don't think that,
[00:31:06] uh,
[00:31:09] I don't think.
[00:31:11] Bo Nix is going to have a particularly good game.
[00:31:14] Like,
[00:31:14] I don't think we're going to come out of this and be like,
[00:31:16] wow.
[00:31:17] Uh,
[00:31:18] but I think the most optimistic view of this is that he doesn't do anything to,
[00:31:24] uh,
[00:31:26] hurt the team's chances of,
[00:31:28] he doesn't turn the ball over.
[00:31:29] Like you can't be through going out there and throwing picks and giving Lamar extra possessions.
[00:31:34] You can't be taking stupid sacks to bring us out of field goal range.
[00:31:39] You can't be doing any of the things,
[00:31:41] the little things that quarterbacks can do that lose us games.
[00:31:46] Uh,
[00:31:46] and I think that's really all we can ask of him in this situation.
[00:31:52] Uh,
[00:31:52] and,
[00:31:54] um,
[00:31:56] hopefully we will,
[00:31:58] uh,
[00:31:59] we can have like a good player to,
[00:32:02] you know,
[00:32:03] have like some downfield passing.
[00:32:05] Uh,
[00:32:05] and honestly,
[00:32:07] Sean has been opening up the playbook a little bit.
[00:32:10] Like he's,
[00:32:10] he's clearly trusting him more and more,
[00:32:12] but again,
[00:32:13] this is a pretty big test of that.
[00:32:15] Like,
[00:32:16] does Peyton just completely rein in the leash that he's been giving him?
[00:32:19] Because he's like,
[00:32:20] Oh,
[00:32:20] we're on the road against the Ravens,
[00:32:22] which is the dumbest.
[00:32:24] It's the dumbest.
[00:32:26] Make an appearance.
[00:32:26] It would be the dumbest possible thing that we could do.
[00:32:30] Like you don't want to,
[00:32:32] you need to just trust him and be like,
[00:32:35] whatever,
[00:32:35] man.
[00:32:35] Like if we lose this game by 21,
[00:32:37] who cares?
[00:32:38] Like don't go out with a whimper,
[00:32:40] go out with a bang,
[00:32:41] baby.
[00:32:41] Let's,
[00:32:42] uh,
[00:32:42] let's see what we got.
[00:32:44] Um,
[00:32:45] all right,
[00:32:45] let's get to it.
[00:32:46] Uh,
[00:32:47] predictions here.
[00:32:48] Um,
[00:32:48] I am going to take the Ravens,
[00:32:51] uh,
[00:32:52] 30 Broncos,
[00:32:54] 24.
[00:32:55] I think this is a,
[00:32:56] uh,
[00:32:57] kind of a backdoor cover,
[00:32:58] um,
[00:32:59] sort of a thing here.
[00:33:00] Um,
[00:33:01] where I see a late touchdown coming in.
[00:33:03] Uh,
[00:33:03] so I like the Broncos to cover the nine and a half,
[00:33:06] but I do not,
[00:33:07] um,
[00:33:08] trust that they're actually going to win this game.
[00:33:12] I'm going to go to 34,
[00:33:13] 17 Ravens.
[00:33:17] That's on the table.
[00:33:18] That's on the table for sure.
[00:33:21] Yeah.
[00:33:22] I,
[00:33:23] I just,
[00:33:24] I think this is sort of where the expectations get tempered a little bit.
[00:33:29] Uh,
[00:33:31] I don't know though.
[00:33:32] I mean,
[00:33:34] one of these teams,
[00:33:36] I am convinced that one of the like really good AFC teams,
[00:33:43] which really,
[00:33:43] they're probably only the,
[00:33:45] uh,
[00:33:46] Ravens and the chiefs at this point,
[00:33:48] but I think one of them is going to lose this week.
[00:33:51] And so you,
[00:33:54] you can,
[00:33:54] you can take that hope if you want to Broncos fans,
[00:33:58] uh,
[00:33:59] that hopium is out there if you need it,
[00:34:01] but I do,
[00:34:02] I don't,
[00:34:03] I,
[00:34:03] I think that the outcome I laid out in my prediction is much more likely than
[00:34:08] the Broncos winning the game outright.
[00:34:10] Right.
[00:34:11] I mean,
[00:34:12] Lamar didn't practice for two days in this line,
[00:34:15] got down to eight and a half instead of nine and a half.
[00:34:17] Like the Vegas was not letting sharps come in here and bang the Ravens.
[00:34:23] Um,
[00:34:24] that it's clear they do not trust this,
[00:34:26] this,
[00:34:27] uh,
[00:34:28] Broncos team.
[00:34:28] And you know what?
[00:34:30] Let's see where it goes.
[00:34:31] Lots of big lines this week.
[00:34:33] Yes.
[00:34:34] They are done with,
[00:34:36] uh,
[00:34:37] people being able to take favorites.
[00:34:39] Um,
[00:34:40] which this feels like this is the time of the year that that happens.
[00:34:43] It's like the opening lines,
[00:34:45] the public gets railed.
[00:34:47] And then there's like weeks,
[00:34:52] like four,
[00:34:53] five,
[00:34:53] six,
[00:34:53] the favorites start becoming healthy and start like playing well.
[00:34:56] So they really hammer some crap teams.
[00:35:01] And then Vegas just goes,
[00:35:03] all right,
[00:35:04] we're not hanging less than seven.
[00:35:06] Like if we think you suck and you're playing the Ravens or the lions,
[00:35:10] like you're getting a lot of points.
[00:35:13] That's just how it's going to be.
[00:35:14] And we'll take some sharps,
[00:35:17] making some money on us,
[00:35:18] taking ugly teams.
[00:35:19] Um,
[00:35:19] cause the Joe public won't,
[00:35:22] won't take Bo Nix on the road versus,
[00:35:24] uh,
[00:35:25] Lamar coming off a loss.
[00:35:27] Um,
[00:35:29] but speaking of Ryan,
[00:35:32] I'm back.
[00:35:34] I,
[00:35:34] I,
[00:35:35] while I didn't have a winning week last week,
[00:35:36] it cleansed my spirit.
[00:35:38] When I was cheering for Matheson to get in the end zone,
[00:35:42] uh,
[00:35:43] versus the chiefs,
[00:35:44] I was like,
[00:35:44] you know what?
[00:35:45] This is the purity of gambling.
[00:35:46] This is what it's all about.
[00:35:48] I,
[00:35:48] I feel like my chakras are in line.
[00:35:51] I went to the temple of gambling.
[00:35:53] I climbed a mountain.
[00:35:54] I meditated up there.
[00:35:56] I saw Matheson.
[00:35:58] Uh,
[00:35:59] I saw,
[00:36:00] you know,
[00:36:00] all the bets,
[00:36:01] all the universe laid out before me and I'm ready to go three and O,
[00:36:06] uh,
[00:36:06] this week.
[00:36:07] Uh,
[00:36:07] I have declared.
[00:36:08] Um,
[00:36:09] so my first one is,
[00:36:11] uh,
[00:36:12] one that I said,
[00:36:13] Joe public probably didn't want any part of,
[00:36:15] um,
[00:36:16] I'm taking the Broncos plus nine and a half.
[00:36:18] Um,
[00:36:18] I just think this is too many points.
[00:36:20] I don't trust this race Ravens defense.
[00:36:22] Like you said,
[00:36:23] they're opportunistic.
[00:36:24] So like if Bo makes some stupid decisions early,
[00:36:27] this is going to get very out of hand very quickly.
[00:36:29] Um,
[00:36:30] um,
[00:36:30] but this is also a Ravens team that will let up a backdoor cover.
[00:36:34] Um,
[00:36:35] there's no reason for them to play Lamar.
[00:36:37] If they get up,
[00:36:38] you know,
[00:36:39] like to keep it a game,
[00:36:42] like I,
[00:36:43] they are going to try to get rest,
[00:36:44] um,
[00:36:45] here.
[00:36:45] If they get up early,
[00:36:47] uh,
[00:36:47] I think they'll kind of,
[00:36:49] you know,
[00:36:50] do three yards in a cloud of dust in the fourth quarter.
[00:36:53] If they're up 21 or something heading in,
[00:36:55] and we can maybe see this line,
[00:36:57] this closed down,
[00:36:58] even if it's not necessarily a competitive game,
[00:37:01] right?
[00:37:02] Um,
[00:37:03] much like how it was with the Broncos and the Panthers,
[00:37:06] right?
[00:37:06] Like you ended up kind of having to sweat that 11 and a half,
[00:37:09] but you know,
[00:37:11] it wasn't a game at any point that you thought the Panthers were actually
[00:37:15] going to do something.
[00:37:17] No.
[00:37:17] Um,
[00:37:18] but I,
[00:37:19] I like this nine and a half.
[00:37:20] What do you think there?
[00:37:21] Uh,
[00:37:21] I know you predicted the cover,
[00:37:23] um,
[00:37:24] in your final score prediction.
[00:37:26] Do you see any value though in this?
[00:37:28] Um,
[00:37:29] or are you going to go the opposite way?
[00:37:31] Are we going to be betting enemies here?
[00:37:33] And you're,
[00:37:33] you're going to take the Ravens with this?
[00:37:35] No,
[00:37:35] I'm done.
[00:37:36] I'm not going to take the Ravens.
[00:37:37] I just don't like this number very much.
[00:37:40] Uh,
[00:37:41] you're probably on the right side of it because it doesn't make sense to me.
[00:37:44] That's why I don't like it.
[00:37:45] So I,
[00:37:48] um,
[00:37:49] you're,
[00:37:49] you're on the right side,
[00:37:51] but I'm going to stay away.
[00:37:53] Fair.
[00:37:55] Uh,
[00:37:55] I'll give you my first one.
[00:37:57] I'm going back and forth here.
[00:37:59] I know I'm going to take this one.
[00:38:01] So I'm going to,
[00:38:01] I'm going to take over 70 yards for Alvin Kamara,
[00:38:05] Kamara in the Raven saints game.
[00:38:09] Uh,
[00:38:09] it's minus one 30.
[00:38:11] You mean a saints Panthers game?
[00:38:13] It's Panthers.
[00:38:13] Yeah.
[00:38:14] I was like,
[00:38:15] you don't want the Ravens,
[00:38:16] but you are playing the Panthers.
[00:38:18] Yeah.
[00:38:19] Uh,
[00:38:20] this is just a straight play of like,
[00:38:22] you don't have to do anything,
[00:38:23] but run the ball.
[00:38:24] Like all you have to do is run the ball and you will.
[00:38:27] And I,
[00:38:28] this number surprised me.
[00:38:30] So minus one 30,
[00:38:31] you pay a little bit of juice there,
[00:38:33] but I'm going to take it.
[00:38:35] Yeah.
[00:38:36] This Panthers team is God awful.
[00:38:39] This is definitely one of those things where you,
[00:38:42] I think it's like,
[00:38:43] I don't know what the technical,
[00:38:44] I think it's escalator,
[00:38:45] but you take like 70 yards,
[00:38:47] 90 yards.
[00:38:49] Yeah.
[00:38:49] Yeah.
[00:38:50] Like just bet on him,
[00:38:52] you know,
[00:38:53] a little bit less each time,
[00:38:55] but sprinkle a little bit on all.
[00:38:57] Yeah.
[00:38:58] I don't hate that at all.
[00:39:00] I like,
[00:39:00] like you said,
[00:39:01] a little bit of juice,
[00:39:02] but I don't think we often have said on this podcast,
[00:39:05] just because something has juice doesn't mean it doesn't have value.
[00:39:08] Like if you have a,
[00:39:10] if in your mind,
[00:39:10] when you look at something,
[00:39:11] you go,
[00:39:12] Oh,
[00:39:12] that should be like minus one 50 minus one 60.
[00:39:14] And it's minus one 30.
[00:39:16] That's a ton of value,
[00:39:18] right?
[00:39:18] Like that's 30 bucks of value.
[00:39:20] Absolutely.
[00:39:21] Jump on that.
[00:39:22] And in this case,
[00:39:24] I don't think there's 30 bucks of value there,
[00:39:26] but I do think there's value.
[00:39:27] So I like that.
[00:39:28] And people forget,
[00:39:29] like Kamara was kind of cooking early season.
[00:39:33] Obviously the saints are banged up in the offensive line,
[00:39:35] but the Panthers,
[00:39:37] they have their stud defensive tackle out for the season.
[00:39:40] They suck at every level.
[00:39:43] And the saints with car back,
[00:39:45] I think they're going to be ahead here.
[00:39:47] So you're going to get a steady diet of Kamara.
[00:39:50] And Kamara is still has enough explosiveness that you can get like 40 yards
[00:39:55] in a chunk,
[00:39:56] which I think is always key when you're looking at like over rushing yards,
[00:39:59] you don't want to just be sitting there being like,
[00:40:01] well,
[00:40:01] I need him to get 23 carries in this game.
[00:40:04] Like he can get the Kamara is a guy who can get this done quickly.
[00:40:08] So I like that for your first bet.
[00:40:11] I think we're two and O so far.
[00:40:14] I'm going to stay ugly here.
[00:40:16] I'm going Monday night.
[00:40:18] I'm taking Tampa Bay.
[00:40:21] Plus I believe that is also nine and a half.
[00:40:23] It might be eight and a half though.
[00:40:25] Let me double check it.
[00:40:27] Um,
[00:40:28] regardless,
[00:40:29] um,
[00:40:31] congrats that nine and a half,
[00:40:33] uh,
[00:40:34] congrats to the chiefs on covering in advance.
[00:40:36] Cause whenever I,
[00:40:37] um,
[00:40:38] fade Patrick Mahomes,
[00:40:39] he inevitably plays the game of his life.
[00:40:41] Um,
[00:40:42] but nine and a half,
[00:40:44] this bucks team still showed up and played pretty darn well.
[00:40:48] Um,
[00:40:48] last week versus the Falcons.
[00:40:50] Um,
[00:40:51] I think Baker's in a pretty good rhythm.
[00:40:52] Uh,
[00:40:53] I don't think that this chiefs team is like,
[00:40:58] I don't think Hopkins is who he was that like,
[00:41:01] he just instantly solves all their problems.
[00:41:03] Right.
[00:41:04] Um,
[00:41:04] um,
[00:41:05] I think this is a low scoring,
[00:41:07] uh,
[00:41:08] kind of chiefs offense still.
[00:41:10] And this,
[00:41:13] to your point,
[00:41:14] it feels like the trappiest of trap games,
[00:41:18] um,
[00:41:19] for the chiefs.
[00:41:20] You've kind of,
[00:41:21] you know,
[00:41:22] everyone has going to be eating that dub.
[00:41:24] And yeah,
[00:41:26] you,
[00:41:26] everybody has it penciled in as a,
[00:41:29] a W here for you against Baker without Godwin,
[00:41:33] without Evans.
[00:41:35] Um,
[00:41:35] and it just feels like a stupid game that the chiefs lose.
[00:41:40] Um,
[00:41:41] you know,
[00:41:42] every year,
[00:41:42] uh,
[00:41:43] I wouldn't put money on the money line,
[00:41:45] but I just think this is too many points,
[00:41:47] man.
[00:41:47] It's a lot of points for my homes has not been good this year.
[00:41:52] He's done a lot of picks and that's yeah.
[00:41:57] The defense has been great,
[00:41:58] but the offense has been sort of meh.
[00:42:01] I agree.
[00:42:02] It's too many points.
[00:42:03] I like the way you're,
[00:42:04] you're going this week.
[00:42:05] Just taking the points where there's just too many of them on the board.
[00:42:09] Just make it simple.
[00:42:10] Yeah.
[00:42:11] Uh,
[00:42:12] I'm not making it simple on myself.
[00:42:13] I've got a whole lot of stuff going on over here.
[00:42:16] Um,
[00:42:18] but what I think I'm going to do is I'm going to do a same game parlay for the Broncos game.
[00:42:29] Uh,
[00:42:30] I'm going to take Derek Henry over 89 and a half rushing yards.
[00:42:35] And then I'm going to parlay that with bone next to throw an interception.
[00:42:41] And that is going to be plus one 76.
[00:42:45] Uh,
[00:42:45] uh,
[00:42:46] I think that the Broncos are going to be behind in this game,
[00:42:49] but it's going to have to be slinging it and he's going to throw a pick.
[00:42:53] And I also think the Ravens are going to be ahead.
[00:42:56] And you want to talk about big playability.
[00:42:58] Uh,
[00:42:59] Derek Henry has that in spades.
[00:43:01] He could do this in one play.
[00:43:03] Uh,
[00:43:04] he could very easily bust a 90 yard rush on our ass.
[00:43:07] Uh,
[00:43:08] so,
[00:43:09] yeah.
[00:43:10] Um,
[00:43:11] I,
[00:43:11] I don't hate this.
[00:43:13] It's been weird with Henry because like he'll have like four carries in the first half,
[00:43:18] but then he like gets to 19 by the end of the game.
[00:43:21] So I guess I'm not,
[00:43:23] that's the only part that concerns me,
[00:43:24] but I do agree with you that with Lamar nursing injuries,
[00:43:28] it just feels like there's going to be more of a,
[00:43:31] ah,
[00:43:32] I'm going to put this in your belly right here.
[00:43:33] Uh,
[00:43:34] let you go take this,
[00:43:35] uh,
[00:43:35] this bruising,
[00:43:36] um,
[00:43:37] rather than me keeping pulling in,
[00:43:39] keeping it out.
[00:43:39] Um,
[00:43:40] so I liked that a little bit more for you.
[00:43:42] Uh,
[00:43:43] it does feel like they're taking him out like a lot when they want to have the option to pass.
[00:43:51] Um,
[00:43:52] which,
[00:43:52] you know,
[00:43:52] just hurts his snap count a little bit.
[00:43:54] Um,
[00:43:55] but I do think Bo Nix is throwing a pick this Ravens defense.
[00:43:59] Like they're opportunistic.
[00:44:02] Um,
[00:44:02] like I said,
[00:44:03] they're not the same,
[00:44:04] like just skilled across the board,
[00:44:06] kind of a thing,
[00:44:07] but he still makes some things where he'll hang one.
[00:44:12] And he gets a ball tipped every game.
[00:44:15] Like,
[00:44:17] and so the,
[00:44:18] you,
[00:44:19] you made a great point there.
[00:44:20] Uh,
[00:44:21] and I'm actually,
[00:44:23] I looked at it because you can't same game parlay longest rush and anything else.
[00:44:31] Uh,
[00:44:31] but Derek Henry's longest rush is 19 and a half.
[00:44:35] And that is an insulting number.
[00:44:37] He's going to bust a 20 yard run on us like in the first quarter.
[00:44:43] Uh,
[00:44:43] so just some free money out there for the podcast.
[00:44:47] I'm not going to take it in my best bets,
[00:44:49] but that is free money.
[00:44:50] I'm going to bet on it right now in real life.
[00:44:53] Yeah.
[00:44:54] it,
[00:44:54] uh,
[00:44:54] that I agree with you there.
[00:44:56] That feels like,
[00:44:57] you know,
[00:44:58] there's a missed tackle one time and 20 yards,
[00:45:02] 20 yards for Derek.
[00:45:03] Like what the man is twice the size of anybody,
[00:45:07] but Zach Allen on our defense.
[00:45:10] It does feel difficult to bring down.
[00:45:12] Yes.
[00:45:13] Um,
[00:45:15] all right.
[00:45:16] Uh,
[00:45:16] my final one,
[00:45:17] I am going over 47 and a half in this Seahawks and Rams game.
[00:45:23] Uh,
[00:45:24] by the way,
[00:45:25] all mine are minus one 10 this week,
[00:45:27] keeping it simple for producer Dan.
[00:45:29] Um,
[00:45:31] I,
[00:45:31] I like what I see from the Rams as far as Puka cup being back.
[00:45:37] Um,
[00:45:38] I think that offense is really good.
[00:45:41] Um,
[00:45:41] and I think that defense still really sucks.
[00:45:45] And I think Seattle,
[00:45:47] um,
[00:45:48] has some big playability.
[00:45:51] I think obviously the Rams have big playability.
[00:45:53] That's what you want.
[00:45:54] When you want overs,
[00:45:55] do you want explosive plays?
[00:45:57] It's too often.
[00:45:58] People are like,
[00:45:59] well,
[00:45:59] this team's going to score.
[00:46:00] You're like,
[00:46:01] well,
[00:46:01] it's fine.
[00:46:02] But if it takes them six minutes to score and it takes the other team,
[00:46:04] six minutes to score,
[00:46:06] you're still going to be sweating this,
[00:46:08] you know,
[00:46:08] out.
[00:46:09] Whereas I think here,
[00:46:10] um,
[00:46:11] you have some real explosive plays available to you.
[00:46:15] Um,
[00:46:16] and I,
[00:46:17] I kind of expect an NFC West shootout here.
[00:46:20] Um,
[00:46:20] so I,
[00:46:21] I like this over 47 and a half.
[00:46:25] Give it to me.
[00:46:26] Um,
[00:46:27] I,
[00:46:27] I also,
[00:46:28] I kind of,
[00:46:29] I tried to talk myself into the Seahawks.
[00:46:31] It just feels weird that people are like,
[00:46:34] all of a sudden the Rams,
[00:46:35] people are like,
[00:46:36] ah,
[00:46:36] they're pretty good.
[00:46:37] I'm like,
[00:46:38] they needed a miracle to be,
[00:46:40] and the,
[00:46:40] the 49ers to turn their brains off.
[00:46:43] And then they,
[00:46:44] you know,
[00:46:46] predictably caught a Minnesota team off guard,
[00:46:49] but they also got schmooked earlier in the season.
[00:46:54] And while part of that was the injuries to their wide receiver,
[00:46:58] that defense wasn't injured.
[00:47:00] Uh,
[00:47:01] it was the offense.
[00:47:02] That defense still sucks.
[00:47:04] And that offensive line still isn't great.
[00:47:06] I think this,
[00:47:06] this isn't over.
[00:47:08] Yeah.
[00:47:09] Uh,
[00:47:09] yeah,
[00:47:10] I agree with you.
[00:47:12] And my last bet is actually somewhat correlated to this.
[00:47:15] Uh,
[00:47:16] so I'll just go into that for you.
[00:47:18] I'm going to take Kyron Williams,
[00:47:20] two or more touchdowns,
[00:47:22] uh,
[00:47:23] plus two 55.
[00:47:26] Uh,
[00:47:26] he's already done this three times this year.
[00:47:29] So not out of the realm of possibility.
[00:47:32] Certainly,
[00:47:32] uh,
[00:47:34] the wide receivers are back.
[00:47:36] So that does sort of hurt,
[00:47:38] uh,
[00:47:39] his potential red zone,
[00:47:41] uh,
[00:47:42] targets.
[00:47:42] You're looking at me crazy.
[00:47:44] Am I wrong?
[00:47:45] No,
[00:47:45] I feel like,
[00:47:46] uh,
[00:47:46] I,
[00:47:47] I feel like it does hurt his red zone targets,
[00:47:49] but I also feel like in some ways it can be helpful because they're not
[00:47:53] going to QB sneak Stafford.
[00:47:55] So like you get a pass interference at the one,
[00:47:58] you just kind of pick those up and it does feel like they've been doing some
[00:48:02] like kind of creative run play stuff with McVay this year.
[00:48:05] Um,
[00:48:06] and obviously part of that was out of necessity when the wide receivers were
[00:48:09] out.
[00:48:09] But I just think like you almost have to pay so much attention to Puka and
[00:48:14] cup that it,
[00:48:17] you're going to get some light in the ass boxes here.
[00:48:19] And I,
[00:48:21] I think that in some ways being more multi-dimensional means more trips down
[00:48:27] there,
[00:48:28] which it just can't be a bad thing.
[00:48:32] for a multi-touchdown bet.
[00:48:36] Yeah,
[00:48:37] I,
[00:48:38] uh,
[00:48:38] there's just value in the number to me.
[00:48:40] I mean,
[00:48:41] him to score a touchdown is minus two 25.
[00:48:43] Uh,
[00:48:44] like he's,
[00:48:45] he is very likely going to score one.
[00:48:49] It's just whether he can sneak another one out for me.
[00:48:52] Uh,
[00:48:53] but,
[00:48:53] and it's kind of weird because when he gets that first one,
[00:48:57] this two touchdown bet is going to be plus one 55.
[00:49:04] Like it's just,
[00:49:05] you're,
[00:49:05] you're taking it pregame because you're taking the risk of him not scoring any,
[00:49:09] I guess,
[00:49:10] but,
[00:49:10] uh,
[00:49:11] injury,
[00:49:12] any of that kind of stuff.
[00:49:12] Yeah.
[00:49:13] Yeah.
[00:49:13] But you know,
[00:49:15] I think it's,
[00:49:16] uh,
[00:49:17] there's value.
[00:49:18] Yep.
[00:49:18] I don't disagree with that at all.
[00:49:20] And I also think,
[00:49:22] uh,
[00:49:22] got good hands.
[00:49:23] So it's not just the,
[00:49:25] you can catch them on a screen.
[00:49:27] You can catch them on a little swing out.
[00:49:28] Um,
[00:49:29] you,
[00:49:29] you like that from a back when you kind of have that big play explosiveness,
[00:49:34] but also Corum's not taking his like goal line carries or something.
[00:49:40] And obviously they're not putting Stafford's very old arthritic self,
[00:49:44] um,
[00:49:45] in there for sneaks.
[00:49:46] So,
[00:49:47] yeah,
[00:49:48] yeah.
[00:49:49] Uh,
[00:49:49] I think we're going six and oh,
[00:49:51] I can't wait for it.
[00:49:52] Um,
[00:49:54] but,
[00:49:55] uh,
[00:49:56] that's,
[00:49:57] that's the show today.
[00:49:58] Nuggets fans stay,
[00:50:00] uh,
[00:50:01] stay with us.
[00:50:02] Um,
[00:50:03] so just want to recap my three here quick,
[00:50:05] Ryan.
[00:50:05] Um,
[00:50:08] I am taking the over 47 and a half Rams Seahawks,
[00:50:12] and then I'm taking two plus nine and a halves.
[00:50:15] Give me the bucks.
[00:50:16] Give me the Broncos.
[00:50:17] Both of them are plus nine and a half.
[00:50:19] All of them minus one 10 three victories there.
[00:50:22] Remind the good people what you have,
[00:50:24] Ryan.
[00:50:25] Oh man.
[00:50:26] Um,
[00:50:27] I have the over 89 and a half,
[00:50:32] uh,
[00:50:33] rushing yards for Derek Henry parlayed with a Bo Nix interception,
[00:50:38] which I believe is in the plus one 75 range.
[00:50:43] Uh,
[00:50:43] producer Dan will put it up on the old Instagram.
[00:50:46] Uh,
[00:50:49] and then I have Kyron Williams,
[00:50:51] two or more touchdowns.
[00:50:53] And then I have,
[00:50:54] what was my last one?
[00:50:57] Kamara over 70.
[00:50:59] Oh yeah.
[00:51:01] Yeah.
[00:51:02] Yeah.
[00:51:03] Uh,
[00:51:05] I feel like we're six and O this week.
[00:51:07] I feel like we really turned it around.
[00:51:09] Making all the money for the people.
[00:51:11] Um,
[00:51:12] well,
[00:51:12] thank you for listening.
[00:51:13] Everyone like subscribe.
[00:51:15] Shout out producer Dan.
[00:51:17] Um,
[00:51:18] shout out Ryan.
[00:51:19] Shout out.
[00:51:20] Nicole.
[00:51:21] I'll get you.
[00:51:23] Our King.
[00:51:24] Shout out.
[00:51:25] Everybody playing good.
[00:51:28] Boo.
[00:51:29] Everybody playing bad in Denver.
[00:51:31] Um,
[00:51:32] nice.
[00:51:34] Cool.
[00:51:34] We'll talk to you next week.
[00:51:36] Bye.
[00:51:37] Lucifer Brothers is a Crab Shell Media podcast.